Expected loss‐based alarm threshold set for earthquake early warning systems     

Iunio Iervolino  Massimiliano Giorgio  Gaetano Manfredi 《地震工程与结构动力学》2007,36(9):1151-1168

Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) seem to have potential as tools for real‐time seismic risk management and mitigation. In fact, although the evacuation of buildings requires warning time not available in many urbanized areas threatened by seismic hazard, they may still be used for the real‐time protection of critical facilities using automatic systems in order to reduce the losses subsequent to a catastrophic event. This is possible due to the real‐time seismology, which consists of methods and procedures for the rapid estimation of earthquake features, as magnitude and location, based on measurements made on the first seconds of the P‐waves. An earthquake engineering application of earthquake early warning (EEW) may be intended as a system able to issue the alarm, if some recorded parameter exceeds a given threshold, to activate risk mitigation actions before the quake strikes at a site of interest. Feasibility analysis and design of such EEWS require the assessment of the expected loss reduction due to the security action and set of the alarm threshold. In this paper a procedure to carry out these tasks in the performance‐based earthquake engineering probabilistic framework is proposed. A merely illustrative example refers to a simple structure assumed to be a classroom. Structural damage and non‐structural collapses are considered; the security action is to shelter occupants below the desks. The cost due to a false alarm is assumed to be related to the interruption of didactic activities. Results show how the comparison of the expected losses, for the alarm‐issuance and non‐issuance cases, allows setting the alarm threshold on a quantitative and consistent basis, and how it may be a tool for the design of engineering applications of EEW. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

铁路沿线灾害性天气监测、预测、预警系统   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

叶文军  刘红光等 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2001,24(6):25-27

针对铁路三防（防风，防沙，防洪）的需要，结合大风监测系统建设的实际，对恶劣天气气候条件下，如何保障列车运行安全进行了探讨，并提出铁路沿线灾害性天气监测，预测，预警系统。  相似文献   

Impact of early diagenesis and bulk particle grain size distribution on estimates of relative geomagnetic palaeointensity variations in sediments from Lama Lake, northern Central Siberia   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Norbert R. Nowaczyk  Stefanie Harwart  Martin Melles 《Geophysical Journal International》2001,145(1):300-306

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上新世末～更新世初西太平洋变冷事件及其古气候意义          下载免费PDF全文

王律江 《第四纪研究》1996,16(4):300-309

依据深海沉积中浮游有孔虫化石群落，采用时间面与时间系列分析及目标转换函数方法，再造西太平洋近2.6Ma以来表层水温历史。结果表明，上新世末～更新世初，西太平洋曾经历一大幅度、不可逆性质的温降。变冷事件集中发生于2.4～1.0MaB.P.间，主要体现在亚热带水团，冬、夏降温幅度达7～8℃和2-3℃，热带水团相对稳定。西太平洋温度场巨变表明其在北半球冰川发展过程中的正、负反馈作用，并由此奠定了中、晚更新世冰期旋回的全球气候模式。  相似文献   

冀东三屯营地区片麻岩的早太古宙全岩年龄     

刘武旭  M.F.Thirlwall 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》1992,(1)

冀东三屯营地区麻粒岩相片麻岩由三组中酸性岩石组成。三组片麻岩Pb-Pb全岩等时线年龄为。三组片麻岩也各给自出了早太古宙年龄。岩石的这一年龄,是麻粒岩相变质过程中U和Th亏损之后发生均匀化的结果,因而表明麻粒岩相的变质作用结束于3563Ma之前。岩石在3563～2500Ma期间处于角闪岩相的环境。文中还给出了全岩Rb-Sr同位素的年龄成果,为2500～2800Ma。  相似文献   

赤峰哈拉道口早石炭世花岗闪长岩年代学、地球化学及其地质意义     

李崴崴  陈井胜  高忠晖  刘淼  李斌  杨帆 《地质与资源》1992,29(3):212-223

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贵州早二叠世海相碳酸盐岩稳定同位素组成与玄武岩浆喷发热事件的关系   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

田景春 《矿物岩石》1993,13(2):67-70

本文详细讨论了贵州织金地区早二叠世第一旋回海底喷发玄武岩浆对海相碳酸盐岩的碳、氧、锶同位素组成的影响,这主要表现为玄武岩浆喷发热事件导致了碳酸盐岩的δ~(1(?))C、δ~(18)O及~(87)Sr/~(86)Sr值的明显下降。  相似文献   

甘肃春末夏初飞机人工增雨天气系统分型   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

王劲松  王 《干旱气象》2003,21(4):41-44

利用甘肃省1991～2002年飞机人工增雨作业资料,对春末夏初飞机人工增雨作业状况进行了统计分析;按照甘肃省的天气系统特征,利用探空资料,根据自动化“判别模型”的判别,得出甘肃降水的高空环流可分为三种类型：平直多波动型、西南气流型和西北气流型,其中降水类型以平直多波动型为多见。通过“判别模型”对飞机人工增雨天气系统的分型,结果表明,飞机人工增雨作业的主要天气类型首先为平直多波动型,其次为西南气流型。  相似文献   

Stable Eocene Magnetization Carried by Magnetite and Iron Sulphides in Marine Marls (Pamplona-Arguis Formation,Southern Pyrenees,Northern Spain)     

Larrasoaña  J.C.  Parés  J.M.  Pueyo  E.L. 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2003,47(2):237-254

In order to establish the magnetic carriers and assess the reliability of previous paleomagnetic results obtained for Eocene marine marls from the south Pyrenean basin, we carried out a combined paleo- and rock-magnetic study of the Pamplona-Arguis Formation, which crops out in the western sector of the southern Pyrenees (N Spain). The unblocking temperatures suggest that the characteristic remanent magnetization (ChRM) is carried by magnetite and iron sulphides. The ChRM has both normal and reversed polarities regardless of whether it resides in magnetite or iron sulphides, and represents a primary Eocene magnetization acquired before folding. Rock magnetic results confirm the presence of magnetite and smaller amounts of magnetic iron sulphides, most likely pyrrhotite, in all the studied samples. Framboidal pyrite is ubiquitous in the marls and suggests that iron sulphides formed during early diagenesis under sulphate-reducing conditions. ChRM directions carried by magnetic iron sulphides are consistent with those recorded by magnetite. These observations suggest that magnetic iron sulphides carry a chemical remanent magnetization that coexists with a remanence residing in detrital magnetite. We suggest that the south Pyrenean Eocene marls are suitable for magnetostratigraphic and tectonic purposes but not for studies of polarity transitions, secular variations and geomagnetic excursions, because it is difficult to test for short time differences in remanence lock-in time for the two minerals. The presence of iron sulphide minerals contributing to the primary magnetization in Eocene marine marls reinforces the idea that these minerals can persist over long periods of time in the geological record.  相似文献   

黑龙江嘉荫地区白垩纪-第三纪界线初步观察   总被引：12，自引：3，他引：9  

孙革  孙春林  董枝明  孙跃武  吕建生  熊宪政  周忠立  余福林  邢玉玲  全成  M.A.Akhmetiev  A.R.Ashraf  E.Bugdaeva  D.L.Dilcher  L.Golovneva  K.Johnson  T.Kezina  T.Kodrul  H.Okada 《世界地质》2003,22(1):8-14

本文报道了黑龙江嘉荫白山头地区一条新的地层剖面及其K／T界线的初步研究。新命名的“白山头段”代表乌云组下部的早古新世地层,含以Tiliaephyllum tsagajanicum等为代表的达宁早期植物化石。在白山头剖面上,作者发现可能为白垩纪末期的凝灰岩。结合与俄罗斯布列亚盆地含K／T界线的查加扬群标准剖面的对比,推测嘉荫地区的K／T界线可能位于白山头段底部与上述凝灰岩之上的一层炭质泥岩之间。  相似文献